Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 129

However, this war damaged the Mongols' goodwill towards Russian merchants. The already impoverished tribes of Outer Mongolia had hoped to gain access to more cheap goods by befriending the Russians. But after the Russians launched their war against China, cheap goods imported from Europe almost disappeared because trains needed to transport troops and ammunition. Meanwhile, Russia intensified its exploitation of the Mongols, using rubles from the steppes to buy horses, cattle, and sheep to support its army. This made the already impoverished Outer Mongolia even poorer.

It was precisely because of Russia's plunder of resources in Outer Mongolia that the Mongolian upper class, who originally had a favorable impression of the Russians, turned away from Russia. In particular, the earthquake that the Russians encountered when they attacked Uliastai made the Mongols believe that the Russians had violated the will of the Eternal Heaven by entering the steppe and were therefore being punished in this way.

Therefore, although the Russians initially won over the Living Buddha of Kulun, after the earthquake, the various Mongol tribes tended to continue supporting the imperial court, ignoring the Living Buddha's orders. Ultimately, the Living Buddha's commands were only obeyed by the tribes surrounding Kulun. However, these tribes did not benefit much, as their trade was cut off.

Daolin is the southernmost border town under the jurisdiction of Kulun. After two years of trade cut off, the herders here are living in dire straits. The furs they have accumulated cannot be exchanged for goods to improve their lives. Watching these furs being eaten by insects and becoming worthless, they naturally become excited when they hear the news of a caravan's arrival.

Lu Gui, who led the caravan into the grasslands, discovered that the mission was not as dangerous as he had imagined. The herders they encountered along the way did not show any hostility towards them. Instead, they advised them not to go to Kulun, because the Russians were still there. They could stay in Daolin and let the nearby tribes come to trade.

If he were truly a merchant, he might have agreed immediately, as the exchange price he offered was quite fair, even lower than previous trade prices. Therefore, in just a few days while staying in Daolin, he exchanged nearly two hundred of his several hundred camel caravans for goods. He should be able to trade all the goods of his caravan even without going to Kulun.

However, his mission was to scout out the road to Kulun, so he declined the herders' offer, explaining that his caravan was merely a lead vehicle, and if Kulun was willing to trade, more large caravans would follow. Thus, with the herders' blessings, Lu Gui's caravan continued its journey towards Kulun.

The appearance of the Chinese caravan brought festive joy to the Mongol tribes along the route, and news of it quickly reached Kulun. The Russian troops stationed in Kulun swiftly moved to intercept the caravan, but the Mongols of Kulun also quickly retaliated, stopping the Russians. The Mongols explained to the Russians that not attacking the caravan was a rule of the steppe, and if the Russians broke this rule, they would not be welcomed by the Mongols.

The Russian consul in Kulun, Shishmalev, immediately dispatched Colonel Hitrov to handle the matter. He told the colonel, "Our war in Manchuria has reached a stalemate. The Japanese have launched an offensive towards Harbin and have now reached Yishanpo. In southern Manchuria, the Japanese and Chinese have also encircled Fengtian (Shenyang) and may launch an attack soon. We can no longer afford to have any conflict with the Mongols because St. Petersburg is currently not focused on us..."

Shishmalfoy hoped to maintain the status quo in Outer Mongolia. Of course, if the Chinese were truly there to do business, it would be a good thing for them, both alleviating the Mongolians' dissatisfaction with the lack of daily necessities and providing the Russian army with some supplies. The grim situation of the Far East war had already made the Russian troops in Outer Mongolia feel the distress of insufficient supplies.

Colonel Hitrov supported the consul's position. This border commissioner of Kyakhta, who had originally supported expansion into Outer Mongolia before the war, was now tired of the barbaric and backward Mongolian plateau after two years of doing nothing. He was now only thinking about ending the war as soon as possible and then changing his post.

For these imperial expansionists, expansion meant conquering new territory for Russia and gaining a promotion back to St. Petersburg as a general, rather than wasting their lives in new lands. If expanding the empire's frontiers meant wasting their lives in wilderness, they would rather return it to the Chinese.

Colonel Hitrov approached the Chinese merchants who had been brought to Kulun, and quickly obtained the information he wanted from these obsequious Chinese. He then returned to the consulate and reported back to Shsmarf.

"...I investigated their cargo, which mainly consisted of daily necessities such as tea, candied fruit, cloth, and boots. Apart from the 25 rifles carried by the guards, they did not carry any other weapons. However, I found something interesting among the cargo: some of the goods appeared to be military supplies, and they were unopened military supplies."

After my thorough questioning, the Chinese revealed the truth: this caravan was indeed backed by the Chinese army. However, they didn't intend to attack Kulun; instead, they wanted to sell us their military supplies exclusively. They were willing to accept gold or silver coins, pounds, francs, or marks, but not rubles…”

Schmalford looked at the colonel with some surprise and asked, "Are you sure this isn't a Chinese trick? We've suffered quite a few losses at their hands."

Colonel Hitrov scoffed, "If it were a trick, there would be no need to sell military supplies. Isn't this indirectly increasing our strength? There's no railway from Beijing to the Inner Mongolian border. Sending supplies up here would be as difficult for them as it is for us to send them to Kulun. This is clearly someone seeking personal gain, just like our general..."

Schimmalaf suddenly coughed violently, and Colonel Hitrov seemed to understand, immediately changing the subject, saying, "Aren't all the Chinese officials we've met like this? For a little bit of profit, they never hesitate to sacrifice the country's interests. Of course, the biggest problem is that we don't have pounds, francs, or marks. Otherwise, if we bought these Chinese military supplies, we wouldn't have to worry about them launching an attack on Kulun."

After a moment of silence, Shishmalev said, “That’s not a problem. Don’t we have a gold mine here? The tea trade between China and our country has been cut off for the past two years, and now the price of tea in our country has tripled. If we exchange the gold bars for tea, we can make a profit of 100% and still cover the cost of purchasing military supplies from the other side. However, we should first get the approval of Commander Kharchenko and Major General Mazyevsky.”

Colonel Hitrov agreed with the consul's opinion. If the deal were to go through, the benefits would be too great for them to handle. Just transporting the tea back to Europe and exchanging it for gold to give to the national treasury was a plan that two people in Kulun could not accomplish.

Of course, Colonel Hitrov did not completely lower his guard against the Chinese. He still arranged for personnel to monitor the Chinese who came to Kulun and began to discuss the completion of trade with them. However, the colonel's vigilance was limited to the Chinese attack on Kulun; he did not consider that the Chinese might target the Trans-Siberian Railway line behind him.

Meanwhile, several Mongols who entered Kulun with the caravan secretly communicated with several Mongol princes in Kulun without the Russians' knowledge. They carried letters from the princes of the Jerim League, which advised Outer Mongolia not to betray China and warned the princes of Outer Mongolia that there would be no benefit in siding with the Russians.

Several princes of Outer Mongolia stated that they had no intention of surrendering to the Russians; it was entirely the work of a few close associates of the Khutuktu who were encouraging the Living Buddha to befriend the Russians and attempt to establish an independent Mongolian state. However, judging from the current situation, the Russians do not seem as powerful as they claim, and their support for Kulun is almost entirely lip service. Therefore, even the Living Buddha himself has begun to hesitate.

In early May, Commander Kharchenko and Major General Mazyevsky sent a telegram to Kulun, suggesting that they could conduct a trial trade with the Chinese and use this opportunity to gather information from within the Chinese community. Lu Gui then sent a telegram to Zhangjiakou at noon on May 5th, indicating that Kulun had agreed to resume trade and was willing to settle accounts in cash.

Chapter 459 The Intensification of the War

Before Lu Gui sent back the telegram, the Northern Army Group had already established supply depots along the way between Datong and Erlian, bringing together the troops that had been scattered in various places for the winter.

Lu Gui's caravan actually had two main tasks: one was to carry letters persuading the Outer Mongolian princes and the Living Buddha of Kulun to Kulun, and the other was to find a suitable route for automobiles. In fact, the original Zhangjiakou-Kulun road was the planned automobile route, but out of caution, Cai E had Lu Gui and his men take another trip.

According to the feedback received so far, the situation in Outer Mongolia is quite favorable for the Northern Group's offensive. On the one hand, the Russians and the Kulun Living Buddha are at odds and have lost the close relationship they had at the beginning of the war. On the other hand, the lives of the lower-class Mongolian herders have become worse than before due to the war, so they are beginning to look forward to the end of the war and the resumption of trade activities on the grassland as soon as possible.

Some generals who were initially skeptical of the assault tactics have now changed their minds. The rift between the Russians and Mongols has made them realize that the target of this war has been narrowed down. As long as the herders of Outer Mongolia do not join the war, they will only have to deal with a few thousand people.

As long as there is no widespread hostility in Outer Mongolia, the real risk of their attack on the Siberian region, which is only about 200 kilometers between the Russian border and the Trans-Siberian Railway, will be greatly reduced.

When Lu Gui sent back the telegram, it was an unexpected boon for the Northern Army Group. It meant that the Russians were unaware of their intentions, and they could continue to deceive them for a while longer. Cai E immediately ordered that the camel transport caravans, which were originally following the cavalry division, be moved ahead of the cavalry division and set off before it.

With the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway, trade between Zhangjiakou and Kulun began to decline. Especially in the two years following the outbreak of war, trade between Zhangjiakou and Kulun was basically cut off. Only the trade routes from Guihua to Uliastai and to Xinjiang could be maintained. As a result, the size of the camel caravans in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang began to shrink, but still remained at around several hundred thousand head.

This time, the Northern Army Group mobilized 4 camels to transport supplies to Kulun. While ostensibly heading to Kulun, half of the supplies were actually intended for establishing supply depots along the way to support subsequent troops and transport convoys. The superficial alliance between the Russians and Mongols meant the Northern Army Group no longer needed to worry about the pre-established supply depots being attacked by the Mongols.

While Cai E was making tense preparations for the war to advance towards the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Japanese finally launched the long-prepared Battle of Mukden. In March and April, the Japanese army's plan was still to tie down the Russian army in the south, and then seize Harbin, the Russian army's transportation hub in northern Manchuria, thereby confining hundreds of thousands of Russian troops in southern Manchuria.

Just as the Japanese army imprisoned over 4 Russian troops in Port Arthur, these Russian soldiers immediately lost the courage to attack the Japanese and simply waited for the Russian army in Manchuria to open up the railway line to rescue them. Therefore, the Japanese high command believed that as long as they captured Harbin, the Russian army in southern Manchuria would inevitably lose morale, either retreating to their original positions or surrendering.

However, when the Japanese army advanced from the coastal area along the railway line towards Harbin, they found that the area was too desolate. The supplies needed by the army had to be transported from the rear. Moreover, the terrain from the west of the Ussuri River to Yimianpo was very complex, consisting of either towering mountains or primeval forests. It would be difficult to carry out a large-scale troop advance without the railway line.

Just as the Japanese army occupied Shuangchengzi and Suifenhe, the Russian army could only advance along the railway line, unable to find a second suitable route for a large-scale advance. Now the Japanese army encountered the same problem. As a result, the battle between the two sides quickly turned into a series of positional battles. After reaching Yimianpo, Okuboko finally telegraphed his headquarters, indicating that with his current forces, it would be difficult to capture Harbin, because the closer they got to Harbin, the more Russian troops they would find, and the more complete their fortifications became.

Faced with the stalemate in the war in northern Manchuria, Yamagata Aritomo ultimately chose to support Ōyama Iwao's plan to fight the Battle of Sedan in the Fengtian area, which would also force the Russian army to abandon the war.

According to Oyama Iwao, attacking Harbin to cut off the Russian army's supply lines in South Manchuria was ultimately just a clever tactic. The Russian army would likely fail and be unwilling to accept defeat, and the war would continue. However, if they could achieve a victory like the Battle of Sedang, decisively defeating the Russian army in South Manchuria, then the Russians would certainly not have any hope of a comeback, as it would be an undeniable victory.

The plan for the Battle of Fengtian at Dashanyan was as follows: one route of Chinese troops from Jinzhou towards Xinmin; another route along the railway line from Dashiqiao to Fengtian; a third route from the Yalu River to Fenghuangcheng towards Fengtian; and a fourth route along the Yalu River towards the upper reaches of the Taizi River, forming a rear route between Fengtian and Tieling. The Japanese forces comprised over 170,000 troops in these three routes, while the Chinese force from Jinzhou alone exceeded 100,000. They faced approximately 300,000 Russian troops from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Armies in Fengtian.

In terms of troop strength, the number of Chinese and Japanese troops facing Fengtian was slightly smaller, but in terms of combat effectiveness, the Sino-Japanese Allied Forces were stronger. This was because at least two-thirds of the 17 Japanese troops were regular troops, while the Chinese and Russian troops were roughly half regular troops and the other half were new recruits or reserves.

By the end of April, the Japanese army had amassed 992 artillery pieces and about 200 machine guns along the Shahe River. The Russian army on the opposite side had more than 1200 artillery pieces, but only fifty or sixty machine guns. The Russian machine guns were homemade and far inferior in performance to the Maxim machine guns used by the Chinese and Japanese.

The Russian defeat at the Battle of Heigoutai, especially the open split between General Gripenberger, commander of the Second Army, and General Kuropatkin, commander of the Manchurian Army, demoralized the Russian army. They could only watch as the Japanese units prepared for war on the front lines, while the Japanese, fresh from their victory at Cam Ranh Bay, launched an attack as soon as they were in position.

Oyama Iwao and Kodama Gentaro also devised a battle plan involving a feint attack to the east and a counterattack to the west, followed by a feint attack to the west and a counterattack to the east, culminating in a full-scale offensive. It can be said that after the Japanese army officially launched the Battle of Mukden on May 3, the battle immediately entered a fierce phase. The Japanese army wanted to achieve a decisive victory in one battle, while the Russian army attempted to thwart the Japanese offensive to buy more time for reinforcements to arrive.

This battle attracted the attention of observers from various countries from the very beginning, so much so that only a very few people noticed Wuhan's continuous reinforcement of troops to the Shanxi region.

It seems that only the French, who had just completed the final procedures for the Zhengtai Railway with the Chinese, noticed the strange actions of the Wuhan side. A French engineer reported to the French legation in China, "...Since last summer, the Chinese have been building roads leading to Shanxi and the Mongolian grasslands, and have built rest stops along the roadside that can accommodate refueling and drivers to rest. If it weren't for preparations for war, the Chinese wouldn't need to maintain such good roads at all..."

It is utterly foolish for the Russians to wage such a war in their sparsely populated Far East. They are helping the Chinese build a vast network of defense roads leading to the border. After this war ends, the Chinese will migrate along these roads to the border region in a continuous stream, eventually forming a populous settlement there that the Russians will never be able to occupy…”

Although French embassy officials in China received these reports, they did not pass them on to the Russians, but instead carefully placed them in the archives concerning the Zhengtai Railway.

In early May, spring had arrived in Luoyang, and Yakov and his companions were digging hard in the soil. As captured Russian soldiers, the Chinese obviously wouldn't support them for nothing, but being able to exchange their labor for food and other necessities was at least not so bad.

As for escaping, forget about it. The Chinese divided them into camps of several hundred to a thousand people each. They didn't even see people from other camps. Obviously, China is as big as Russia and has enough space to accommodate these prisoners. Even if they wanted to escape, they wouldn't know where to go.

Of course, the lack of leaders in the camp was also a problem. The officers in the army were much more comfortable than them. They were sent directly to Tianjin, and it is said that some wounded officers had even been sent back to their country. Only the soldiers were left to do the work.

Although the leaders here were chosen by them, no one was willing to provoke the Chinese for the sake of imperial honor. His Majesty the Tsar might care about wounded officers, but he would never shed a tear for captured soldiers, and even his prayers would be for the warriors who had sacrificed their lives on the battlefield.

However, today was somewhat unexpected. The Chinese officers managing them called Yakov out of the construction site. A Chinese officer held up a piece of paper and asked him in Russian, "Yakov, your home address is in Verkhovinsk Oblast... Is that you?"

Yakov nodded and replied, "Yes, yes."

The Chinese officer nodded and said, "We have investigated. You have explained your past very clearly and are very sincere in accepting labor reform. We believe that you are just one of those who have been deceived by the reactionary Tsarist government. Therefore, we intend to give you a chance to return to the ranks of the people. So, are you willing to completely break with the reactionary Tsarist government and contribute to the Russian and Chinese people?"

Yakov remained silent for a while before cautiously asking, "If I accept, can I go home?"

The officer opposite smiled and nodded, saying, "Of course, since you already know that you have been deceived by the Tsar, know that this is an immoral war of aggression, and are willing to break with the Tsarist government, then you are our comrade, and we certainly will not restrict the freedom of our comrades."

Yakov considered for a moment, then gritted his teeth and said, "I'm willing to break with the Tsar... well, break with him..."

In the various prisoner-of-war camps, political officers were selectively choosing Russian prisoners of war like Yakov. Although some refused, many others, tempted by the prospect of returning home, publicly declared their break with the reactionary Tsarist government in front of their comrades, thus winning tickets home.

Chapter 460 The Beginning of the Financial War

After a dismal March, the US stock market finally began to stabilize and rebound in April. American newspapers were excitedly proclaiming, "The difficult times are finally over, and the US economy will return to an upward trajectory."

This is not entirely unfounded. After all, the escalation of the war in the Far East was constantly increasing the foreign demands of Russia, China, and Japan. This war had risen from the scale of a colonial war to the scale of a great power war. Even the Russians themselves no longer commented on this war that broke out in the Far East in a lighthearted tone in the newspapers, but instead called it the Crimean War of the Far East.

The Crimean War once destroyed Russia's ambition to annex the Balkans and forced Russia to modernize in order to strengthen its national power. Russians compared the Far East war to the Crimean War, which actually shows that they were not optimistic about the outcome of this war.

However, for European and American countries, this war stimulated their economies. Although Russia embarked on the path of capitalism through reforms, its capitalism lagged behind Western European countries by at least fifty years. The Tsar's autocracy severely restricted Russian capitalism, and the dominance held by the aristocracy and landowners meant that a large amount of agricultural surplus ended up in the enjoyment of the aristocracy and landowners rather than flowing into the expansion of capital.

Of course, as a country where a military aristocracy held power, and located at the crossroads of East and West, the Russian Empire, under pressure from foreign enemies, was at least genuinely pursuing the path of capitalism. In this respect, it was much better than the Qing Dynasty. After all, the Qing Dynasty did not witness the process of neighboring small countries becoming strong through capitalism. It was not until Japan launched the First Sino-Japanese War that the Chinese people truly woke up and broke free from the illusion of being the Celestial Empire.

However, Russia was only at the bottom of the imperialist powers. Although Japan could not be considered a true imperialist power, since its military was entirely reliant on foreign purchases and its domestic light industry was relatively well-developed, it was still not something Russia could suppress with its Far East power alone. Moreover, Russia was not facing Japan alone in this war, but also China, the most populous country in the Far East, and various capitalist powers standing behind China and Japan.

Therefore, after Japan joined the war, the scale of the Far East conflict exceeded Russia's pre-war assessment of the Far East's status. According to Russia's diplomatic strategy, Europe was always the top priority, as its victory or defeat affected Russia's survival; Central Asia was the second priority, as opening a passage to the Indian Ocean would make Russia a power on par with Britain; the Far East could only be considered the third priority. While Yellow Russia could enhance Russia's national strength, as long as the power center of the Russian Empire did not shift eastward, Russia could not become the master of the Pacific.

According to this diplomatic strategy, the war should end when it has tied up half of Russia's power in the Far East, because continuing it would be a losing proposition. Even if a victory is achieved in the Far East, it would disrupt the balance of power in Europe, and Russia's European part would be exposed to unpredictable risks.

Take the current situation as an example. Russia's military strength in the Far East has exceeded 50. Russia's active duty military strength is about 150 million, and its reserve force is about 330 million. Although the military strength in the Far East is not yet at the limit of Russia's human resources, in order to support these 50 troops in the Far East, Russia has to supply the equivalent of 100 million people fighting in Europe. In other words, Russia's material supply capacity has reached the limit of peacetime.

The reason the Qing Dynasty surrendered so quickly in the First Sino-Japanese War was due to insufficient supplies from the imperial court. Continuing mobilization would cause local unrest, so the Qing Dynasty chose to make peace with Japan. Russia now faces a similar situation to the Qing Dynasty. If the war continues, it will have to carry out full mobilization, but such full mobilization will bring even more unpredictable results.

The reason why Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire maintained peace on their borders was not because they had any goodwill towards Russia, but because they believed that Russia's power in Europe had not yet been mobilized. They thought that even if they provoked Russia, they would not gain anything, so they remained silent. Once Russia began to fully mobilize, these neighboring countries would mobilize under the pretext of being wary of Russia. Then, would Russia transfer its troops to the Far East or place its troops on the European border?

Therefore, Russia can only mobilize as much as possible locally under peaceful circumstances, and for the parts where domestic resources are insufficient, it can only purchase from abroad. However, this procurement has been delayed by almost all the major powers. Russia can only import some machinery and semi-finished products. The real military equipment has not been delivered in time. This is why the Russian Far East Army has tried its best to obtain only fifty or sixty domestically produced machine guns, while the 200 machine guns ordered from abroad have not yet arrived.

Even so, Russia's imports from Europe and America increased significantly during these two years, leading to a genuine recovery from the European economic depression that began between 1900 and 1903. Although China and Japan did not have the same financial resources as Russia, Russia's gold reserves were second only to the United States, and coupled with the developed agriculture in Ukraine, Russia was not short of funds for imports.

However, it was much easier for China and Japan to obtain loans from Europe and the United States than for Russia, since China and Japan were now being pushed forward by Britain to resist Russia's expansion in the Far East. China, in particular, had embarked on a process of industrialization, which was no longer the small-scale efforts of the Self-Strengthening Movement, nor was it simply a matter of purchasing a few factories.

The cooperation between Wuhan and Germany has finally shown European and American countries how to efficiently develop the Chinese market and utilize China's cheap labor. A populous country that is moving towards industrialization is also a country with an ever-expanding market. What is restricting Wuhan's imports now is capital, not market demand.

Compared to Japan, which followed the British path, China's industrialization, oriented towards heavy chemical industries, clearly relied more on European technology and machinery. This explains why Germany's export trade volume to China reached second only to Britain within just a few years. The rapid expansion of the Chinese market astonished both Europe and America; the two countries with similar experiences are Germany and the United States.

The war, coupled with China's industrialization, gave capitalists in Europe and America hope for a renewed global economic boom. Americans believed that the stock market crash triggered by the San Francisco earthquake was over, and a new period of economic prosperity had begun. Just as the industrialization of Germany and the United States spurred decades of prosperity in Europe and America, this war, along with the post-war economic reconstruction of China, Japan, and Russia, would inevitably revitalize the global economy.

However, the British and French were not as optimistic as the Americans. Unlike the American economy, which had not yet encountered serious setbacks since the Civil War, Britain and France had both experienced real financial crises. The South Sea Company case in Britain and the Mississippi bubble in France made them sense the abnormality of the US stock market.

In this context, as American citizens, guided by public opinion, poured their savings into the stock market to buy at rock-bottom prices, European investors began to withdraw from the US stock market. Some withdrew their funds intentionally, preparing to teach young American investors a profound lesson, while many others simply wanted to avoid the risks of the US stock market.

As a result, industrial bonds issued by China and India in Europe and the United States attracted the attention of these safe-haven funds. The £3000 million bond issued by the Indian Industrial Development Fund sold out in Britain and France, and the Wuhan Workers, Peasants and Soldiers Committee issued 2.5 million francs in Paris. It also reached an agreement with bankers on Wall Street in the United States to issue $5000 million in bonds through the introduction of German financial capitalists.

China and India have absorbed £50 million in funds from Europe and the United States, nearly 80% of which came from the US stock market. This means that the main source of funds for the US stock market has shifted from foreign investors and large capitalists to small and medium-sized investors. The private wealth accumulated during the decades of economic prosperity between the American Civil War and 1907 is now being invested in the stock market through various trust companies and life insurance companies.

A British member of the Indian Industrial Development Fund began congratulating investors who had withdrawn from their US stock market investments, deeming it the wisest choice they had ever made. Meanwhile, Lin Xinyi, far away in India, received a telegram from London containing only the words "United Copper Corporation," and knew his target had been chosen.

Although he was unsure why the British would choose Union Copper, he believed that the US stock market was not far from a real collapse. This was because while the US had strong industrial production capacity, it could not compete with European powers in high-end industries, and its low-end industries could not be spread to the colonies due to the current colonial system.

For example, after China raised tariffs on US steel imports, the British Indian government finally agreed to the Constitutional Conference's request to implement a quota system for foreign steel. The US steel import quota was reduced to the level of China and Japan's exports to India, while the amount of British steel imports accounted for half of the quota. At the same time, the Indian Industrial Development Fund also subscribed to half of the shares of the steel plant built by the Tata Group.

This means that the United States, which holds the top position in global steel production, has seen a significant reduction in its overseas exports. Currently, due to the war, this impact is not yet apparent, but once the war in the Far East ends, US steel exports will suffer a severe blow. For this era, steel is the foundation of economic development, and a decline in steel production capacity means a decline in the economy.

Of course, America's luck still existed. Even disregarding the fact that the outbreak of war in Europe a few years later saved America's industrial capacity, the upcoming automobile era alone would allow American steel to find a completely new market, thus opening up a new market within the United States. Ultimately, America relied on luck to get through the final stage of its journey to the throne.

However, Lin Xinyi still wanted to try to cause some trouble for the Americans. Therefore, after receiving the telegram from the British, he held a meeting with the Industry and Economy Committee of the Indian People's Committee. At the meeting, he proposed that the economic development path of the three northeastern states must be based on land reform to develop industrialization, especially the steel industry.

Lin Xinyi proposed this path because India indeed has inherent advantages for developing its steel industry. The iron ore deposits discovered throughout India are almost all high-grade, giving it a much stronger foundation than China's steel industry. The only problem now is industrial capital and technological capabilities, so he suggested acquiring some outdated steel mills in the United States.

He told the committee members, "With the establishment of U.S. Steel, capital and production capacity became concentrated in the U.S. steel industry. Some small steel mills could no longer survive, and even if we didn't buy them, they would be swallowed up by the U.S. steel monopoly..."

Chapter 461 The Prototype of Total War

While Lin Xinyi and several members of the Indian People's Committee were discussing how to acquire some of the excess capacity as the American steel industry began to consolidate, Takahashi Korekiyo was also embarking on a ship to return to Japan.

During his half-year absence from the country, he successfully raised a total of $2.5 million for Japan in three separate rounds of fundraising, equivalent to 5 million yen at the current exchange rate. In addition, Japan issued 2 million yen in government bonds at the start of the war. Compared to the 10 billion yen in military expenses predicted before the war, Takahashi felt that the funds Japan had raised were sufficient to finish the war. Therefore, he felt very relaxed when he boarded the ship.

However, for officials in Japan's Ministry of Finance, the war was too expensive. An 11-inch shell cost $200, and since Japan could not manufacture such large-caliber shells, it had to import them from abroad.

Last winter, Admiral Togo Heihachiro concentrated the capital ships of the Combined Fleet for intensive gunnery training, consuming a full five basic loads of shells. He also replaced the gun barrels on the capital ships; this expense alone could have purchased one or two new capital ships. Furthermore, the ammunition consumed by the Japanese army in land battles was incomparable to that of the Sino-Japanese War. In the ten days of the Battle of Heitaigou, the number of shells fired by the Japanese army was almost equal to the total number of shells used in the entire Sino-Japanese War.

By March 1, 1907, Japan had spent over 550 million yen on the war, and after 1907, the average monthly military expenditure reached 100 million yen. China's military expenditure on the war was slightly more than half that of Japan, while Russia's expenditure was slightly less than the combined expenditure of China and Japan.

This war has already begun to resemble a total war. It's difficult to force a country to give up resistance before its national strength is exhausted. Capital and industrial capacity have become symbols of national power; without these two things, neither China nor Japan would be a match for Russia.

Japan's pre-war rifle production capacity was only 300 rifles per day, which increased to 1000 rifles after the start of the war. China's rifle production capacity did not exceed 300 rifles per day until the end of 1906, and this was achieved through the efforts of Wuhan to introduce and transform the Hanyang Arsenal.

Russia's industrial capacity was the weakest among the major powers. Due to insufficient rifle production capacity, the first batch of M1891 Mosin-Nagant rifles was even commissioned to be produced by the French Châteaux small arms factory. However, the combined military industrial capacity of China and Japan was less than half that of Russia. If China and Japan hadn't consistently relied on importing weapons and semi-finished products from abroad, it would have been very difficult for the two countries, even if they had joined forces, to cause any real damage to Russia.

It was precisely because Russia needed to ensure the security of Europe and Central Asia that it was so constrained on the Far Eastern front. Russia could not fully utilize its Western power in the East, thus giving China and Japan the opportunity to deplete its strength. Therefore, once the Japanese navy gained control of the East Asian seas, Japan finally wanted to enter into negotiations.

Those who supported negotiations with Russia were mainly the navy and civilian bureaucrats led by Ito Hirobumi. The navy's goal was very clear: to force Russia to give up its maritime power in East Asia. This was the main reason why the navy supported going to war with Russia. As long as Japan controlled the maritime power in East Asia, even if Russia continued to maintain its land superiority, it would not be able to threaten Japan as an island nation.

Whether the southward expansion strategy can be realized for the navy is another matter, but with the war having reached this point, the navy's goal has essentially been achieved. As long as the Russians are willing to surrender and cede Primorsky Krai, the Korean Peninsula, and Kwantung Leased Territory to Japan, then the navy will have no further desire for the mainland.

For the naval leadership, ending the war at this stage was actually more advantageous for the navy, as the army gained nothing, and all the credit went to the navy. The coastal areas, the Korean Peninsula, and the Kwantung Leased Territory effectively encompassed the northeastern coastline of the mainland, meaning neither China nor Russia could threaten the security of the Japanese archipelago. Now, with a monopoly on the narrative, the navy could truly advance southward.

For civilian bureaucrats like Ito Hirobumi, it wasn't that they wanted to help the navy surpass the army; rather, the naval ideology was actually more suitable for a weak Japan. If the war ended there, and Russia ceded the Primorsky Krai, the Korean Peninsula, and the Kwantung Leased Territory, then Japan would have essentially completed the construction of its surrounding security with relatively little investment.

In this situation, Russia would not regard Japan as a mortal enemy, because Russia could still seize Manchuria and Outer Mongolia from China to make up for its losses. In this way, it would be impossible for China and Russia to reach a basis for cooperation, and Japan could continue to take advantage of the confrontation between China and Russia to digest the newly acquired territories and wait for future opportunities.

Just like attending a banquet, the most enjoyable way is to eat until you're three-tenths drunk and seven or eight-tenths full. If you insist on eating and drinking every last drop of food and drink at the banquet, you'll either get completely drunk or suffer from indigestion.

However, it was clear that the army would not agree with the timid views of the navy and the civilian bureaucrats. Even though the Russian army still had enough strength on the Manchurian battlefield, the army was not confident of defeating the Russian army and achieving a decisive victory. Yamagata and other high-ranking army officials could not allow the war to end at this time.

Thus, on the battlefields of Manchuria, lives were being lost as quickly as shells, and the Battle of Mukden, launched by the Japanese army, also reached a stalemate. The Japanese were greatly dissatisfied because the Chinese attacks in the Jinzhou direction were far too weak, lacking the ferocity of their previous offensive against Jinzhou, and failing to achieve their objective of drawing the Russian army's attention.

However, Oyama could only send a letter to Feng Guozhang urging him to take action; it would be wishful thinking to directly order the Beiyang Army to pull chestnuts out of the fire for the Japanese. After the Battle of Jinzhou, the Beiyang Army finally understood the true gap between itself and the Russian army. They were not qualified to engage in large-scale field battles with the Russian army on their own, and even the army in Wuhan was unwilling to fight such a war of attrition.

Feng Guozhang merely went through the motions regarding the official document sent by Dashanyan, refusing to risk the Beiyang Army's resources for a desperate fight. Neither Yuan Shikai nor the Wuhan authorities trusted the Japanese. The Japanese army's harassment of civilians in southern Manchuria was no less disciplined than the Russians'. The Russians beheaded Chinese civilians as Japanese spies, and the Japanese also killed many Chinese civilians, believing them to be Russian spies.

Therefore, it's difficult for the Chinese to say that the Japanese would easily leave this land after driving out the Russians. In that case, watching Russia and Japan weaken each other would actually be more advantageous for China. After the Russians were driven out, the heavily damaged Japanese would not be able to stay. This is precisely the reason why Yuan Shikai believed that war should be avoided to preserve strength.

After recapturing Jinzhou, Fu Cixiang became even more composed and did not propose further plans to attack Xinminfu. Although the Military Commission had not informed the Beiyang Army of its attack plan on the Trans-Siberian Railway, it had not concealed it from him. Knowing that the reorganized Northern Army Group would launch an attack on the Trans-Siberian Railway, Fu Cixiang naturally would not easily expend his forces. After all, it would be most appropriate for him to launch an attack on the Russian army after Cai E had launched his own attack.

Of course, it was impossible to completely conceal the Beiyang Army's plan to launch a northern campaign from them, since the transport routes after crossing the Yellow River would be completely exposed to all sides. In early May, Wuhan dispatched a large number of troops north into Shanxi, which naturally surprised Yuan Shikai. He immediately inquired about this matter with Qin Lishan, who then submitted a plan to Yuan Shikai to recapture Kulun.

Although this plan reassured Yuan Shikai considerably, he was still somewhat worried that Wuhan might take the opportunity to advance into Shaanxi and Gansu. At this time, Yang Shixiang had already taken over as the Governor-General of Shaanxi and Gansu and was gathering forces from all sides in the Northwest. If Wuhan were to send troops from Shanxi to Shaanxi, it would certainly not be good news for Yang Shixiang, whose position was not yet secure. It would also be tantamount to breaking the peaceful coexistence between Wuhan and the Beiyang government.

Qin Lishan then accepted Yuan Shikai's proposal to send several commissioners from Beijing to enter Outer Mongolia with the Wuhan army to appease the local military and civilians. However, due to Qin Lishan's ambiguity, Yuan Shikai thought that Cai E would not be able to launch an attack for at least one or two months, so he was slower in selecting personnel.

In fact, as early as the beginning of May, a large camel caravan had set off from Fengzhen and other places. While he and Qin Lishan were questioning the Wuhan army about their intentions for heading north, Chen Xiyi led his First Cavalry Division from the Second Company to catch up with the camel caravan that had left the Second Company ten days earlier.

Trade between Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang was already quite developed during the Tongzhi and Guangxu periods. During the Guangxu era, the journey from Zhangjiakou to Kulun was generally limited to 30 days; exceeding this timeframe required the caravan to compensate for losses. The ability of the caravans to impose such time limits was naturally based on their familiarity with and smooth operation of the roads. Familiarity with the roads was a skill of the merchants, while ensuring smooth traffic flow depended on the stability of the social order on the grasslands and the merchants' maintenance of the roads.

Almost every road leading to Outer Mongolia and Xinjiang had a fixed rest stop, each equipped with a well and campsite. Even in places without a water source, there were always water sources along the way to replenish the camel caravans' drinking water. It was precisely because of this maintenance of roads and infrastructure that the route from Zhangjiakou to Kulun was called the Zhangjiakou-Kulun Road.

The cavalry division led by Chen Xiyi is now taking a route slightly off the Zhangku Road, located on the east side of the road. The advantage of this new route is that it bypasses the desert area, making it more suitable for vehicles.

If the 5st Cavalry Division advanced at full speed, it would naturally be much faster than the camel caravan. Five days later, they caught up with the tail of the camel caravan north of Daolin, and at this time, the Mongolian herders on the Zhangku Road also realized that war was coming.

With almost no resistance, the herders along this route surrendered to Chen Xiyi's troops. The grass on the grassland had just turned green again, and after a winter of confinement, the herders' horses were almost too tired to run. How could they possibly compete with warhorses that had been raised all winter? Moreover, each camp here had only a few people, ranging from a dozen to fifty or sixty. It was rare to see a tribe with two or three hundred people. The Mongol herders, who had not gathered together, were simply no match for an army of over a thousand who were fully armed.