pertwk Chapter 168 Share
Chapter 168 Share
On the morning that the third-party energy consulting firm released its report on the space photovoltaic market, Han Lu sent the report link to the 402 executive group, adding only three words: "See page seven."
Zuo Cheng opened the link, flipped to the seventh page, and saw the market share pie chart.
In 2021, the global commercial space photovoltaic market (including those under construction and those already signed) accounted for 53.7% – according to 402 Technology.
Of the remaining 46.3%, the top three are Japan's JAXA commercialization division, Germany's Siemens Energy, and the United States' SolarX, which together account for only 43%.
Zuo Cheng stared at the number for a while, then put down his phone.
He already knew roughly where the data would fall in the report, but seeing the printed 53.7% still gave him a strange feeling. It wasn't a surprise, but more like a confirmation—all those decisions, those gambles, all that data gathered overnight, had ultimately become this number.
In the conference room, Han Lu had already compiled the market data into a table.
"In the domestic market, 402 has a dominant share of over 85%. The State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, and the five major power generation groups have all signed contracts, plus follow-up contracts from various provincial energy companies, essentially locking in the domestic market," said Han Lu. "In the international market, Japan and Germany each have a certain share. The US hasn't made any major moves yet, but SolarX held a press conference in Washington last month, showcasing their verification satellite design, and the media says they will launch it next year."
"What about efficiency metrics?" Zuo Cheng asked.
"The simulation data they presented at the press conference was 79%," Han Lu paused, "Our actual measurement was 87.3%, theirs is a simulation."
Zuo Cheng nodded without saying a word.
There's an 8-percentage-point gap, and the other side is still in the simulation stage. Even if they successfully launch a year later, the actual test data will most likely be lower than the simulation values. This gap cannot be closed in the short term.
Behind the 53.7% figure are the contracts that 402 has secured over the past eight months.
After signing agreements with State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, Huaneng, Datang, Guodian, and Huadian followed suit, meaning all five major power generation groups had signed contracts. Then came a wave of inquiries from provincial energy companies; energy bureaus from eleven provinces contacted them en masse, with three provinces directly requesting the contact information of their designated personnel, saying they wanted to compete for the first batch of grid connection quotas. During that period, Han Lu slept only five hours a day, leading her business team in negotiations with seven or eight clients simultaneously.
The international market strategy was developed based on Ying's suggestion.
"Now is the window of opportunity," she said at the time. "Before players from other countries really enter the market, we need to establish standards. It's not about how many contracts we get; the key is to have projects implemented in a few key markets, even just one—that's a demonstration."
Zuo Cheng adopted this suggestion, and Han Lu took the initiative to contact India's SECI, Saudi Arabia's ARAMCO's new energy division, and an Australian regional power grid company. The three projects were not large in scale, totaling no more than 5 million, but their locations were unique—abundant solar energy resources, underdeveloped power grids, and an urgent need for clean energy, making them the ideal entry point for the future large-scale development of space photovoltaics.
The India project has reached its third round of discussions, and the Australian side just completed the signing of a letter of intent two weeks ago.
All of these together make up 53.7% of that pie chart.
What really bothered him was something else.
Two weeks ago, Zhao Tianxing's Tianxing Capital completed an investment of 1.2 million yuan in a company called "Jiutian Technology." Jiutian Technology's main business is satellite manufacturing. Not space photovoltaics, but general-purpose satellite platform manufacturing.
When this news first broke, Zuo Cheng didn't pay much attention. But in the last two days, Shen Yiming noticed it and showed him a background report on Jiutian Technology's team. The founder was the former director of the overall department of a national aerospace research institute, and several of his core engineers all came from a background in launch vehicles.
"It's interesting that rocket engineers are going to develop satellite platforms," Shen Yiming said. "It's either to reduce launch costs or to lay the foundation for future commercial spaceflight."
Zuo Cheng wrote it down at the time, but didn't think about it in much depth.
After reading the market report today, he suddenly connected the two things.
Lin Jianhua admitted that he couldn't catch up in the space photovoltaic field, and then Zhao Tianxing immediately invested in a satellite manufacturing company. Space photovoltaics may not be viable, but if satellite manufacturing capabilities are mastered, one can become a supplier for 402, using upstream positioning to influence downstream.
This logic is exactly the same as the supply chain blockade of that year.
Zuo Cheng noted in his memo: Jiutian Technology, keep an eye on it.
In the evening, news of an updated valuation came from the investment banks. One institution conducted a revaluation of the 401 report, giving a range of $97 billion to $113 billion. The original valuation of $62 billion was essentially outdated after market share was established.
Han Lu called: "Mr. Zuo, I think we can start discussing the Series C funding."
"No rush," Zuo Cheng said. "At this point in market share, all the institutions are scrambling to get in, and the later we negotiate, the higher the premium will be. Let's wait until the second-generation satellite is fully assembled before making any moves."
"Okay, I'll prepare." Han Lu paused for a moment. "Also, SoftBank Energy Japan sent a second letter, this time directly inviting you to meet in Tokyo. It's from Mr. Sun, the CEO of SoftBank."
Zuo Cheng thought for a moment and replied that he didn't have time at the moment.
After hanging up the phone, he sat in a chair for a while.
We've become number one in the market, so what?
Second-generation satellites will be mass-produced within 18 months, and a five-year plan for third-generation satellites has been launched. The door to commercial spaceflight has already begun to open in his vision. On the system panel, the progress bar for the space photovoltaic system is already about two-thirds lit up, and the remaining part still requires some concrete achievements to push it forward.
He knew where that threshold was.
The next step is industry standards. When a company's technology becomes the standard for the entire industry, it means that its market position has changed from market share leader to standard setter, and there is a difference of an order of magnitude between the two.
This step is more difficult and more important than market share.
The sound of Li Guodong and Qiu Pei discussing the testing schedule for the second-generation satellite could be heard in the corridor. They were speaking quickly and loudly. In the small conference room next door, Yu Ying and Wei Jia were working on a data report. Two half-eaten cups of coffee sat on the table, both of them staring intently at the screen. In Han Lu's office, the phone rang incessantly. She answered the call while scribbling something on the whiteboard; her handwriting was very messy.
There are eleven offices on this floor, and someone is working in every single one of them.
Zuo Cheng stood up and walked towards the door.